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April 10, 2003
The Day After

Presumably, broken pieces of the metal Saddam are still lying around, scattered in the streets of Baghdad. The genuine article, on the other hand, has vanished, along with most of the Baath Party's leadership. No bitter end in a bunker for them -- or at least, not yet.

So the day after -- the one everyone was thinking about before the war even started -- has finally arrived. And with it a few nasty hints of what might be in store, for us as well as for the Iraqis.

To be sure, yesterday was a tough act to follow. The coalition (finally!) got its TV images of grateful Iraqis cheering their "liberation" (Yes, I'm still putting the word in quotes, for reasons that will soon be obvious, if they aren't already.)

The images I saw on the BBC made it hard to tell whether the "mobs" and "crowds" of jubilant Baghdadis cited in the coalition press consisted of more than just a couple of hundred people. But it was, after all, a war zone, and still a hot one. Flying shrapnel can definitely put a damper on a block party.

So let's assume that yesterday's crowd, however sized, represented a statistically valid sample of public opinion in Baghdad. Overly weighted towards the Shia point of view, perhaps -- as well as towards those willing to risk a little shrapnel in order to "liberate" some temporarily unused public property. But these are quibbles. I'll gladly stipulate that the vast majority of Iraqis were overjoyed to see Saddam's backside (wherever it may be) get kicked, and not too picky about whose boot did the kicking.

But that was 24 hours ago. Since then, we've seen:

* Rampant looting, verging on total anarchy, in Basra as well as Bagdhad. The Shia underclass is finally having its day, and predictably, they are not acting like the long-suffering but noble angels of an old World War II movie (think Anne Frank in keffiyeh) but rather like an angry mob out for revenge -- and a five-finger discount on anything that isn't nailed down and much that is. In Baghdad, they're even looting the hospitals.

* The creation of the nucleus of a new civilian government in Basra, consisting of an unnamed tribal "sheihk" who just happened to wander by. How do the British know he's legitimate, and friendly, and honest -- as opposed to, say, an Iranian operative who's hit the jackpot? Why they asked a few of the locals, of course. It's nice to see the British have lost none their talent for colonizing.

(Update: It looks like the Brits didn't ask around enough.)

* A suicide attack on a Marine detachment in downtown Bagdhad -- conveniently staged next to the media headquarters in the Palestine Hotel. At least one Marine dead; more wounded. So much for the block party.

* The murder of not one but two leading pro-American Shia clerics in the holy city of Nejaf. This is the same city where a previously unknown Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi Coalition of National Unity, allegedly has been terrorizing the local population, under the watching eyes (or benign neglect) of the US occupation forces. Who killed the Imams? And why? Did the orders come from Tehran? Badghad? Washington? (Actually, I'm not quite that paranoid, but then again, I'm not from the Middle East.)

* The entry of Kurdish militia into Kirkuk -- a major oil city, the traditional capital of Iraqi Kurdistan and a rather sensitive nerve for the Turkish generals, who right now are probably wondering exactly who is selling out whom (a traditional Middle Eastern concern.) Will the Kurds withdraw? Will American troops replace them? Will the Turks have to do a little "liberating" of their own? Paranoid minds want to know.

* The early stages of Operation Liberate Syria. Rumsfeld and the neocons are now accusing Damascus not just of providing war material to the Iraqis, but also of offering shelter to newly unemployed Baath officials -- who knows, maybe even the Big Enchilada himself.

Apparently, Sharon's driving instructions for V Corps read something like: "When you get to Baghdad, hang a left."

Now far be it from me to suggest yesterday's Iraq "liberation" is rapidly descending into tomorrow's Middle East quagmire. I couldn't be heard anyway -- certainly not over the chestbeating and the Tarzan cries from the freepers, the neocons and other assorted Bush babies.

But at least consider this gem of a quote, plucked from deep down in the BBC reporters web log:

One of my close Iraqi friends went up to an American marine and said to him: "I'm going to exercise my right of free speech for the first time in my life - we want you out of here as soon as possible."


Posted by billmon at April 10, 2003 04:01 PM