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April 15, 2003
Mosul Match

The Marines shot a bunch of people in Mosul today.

What? Yes, I know that's what Marines do. But these were civilians.

Yes. Yes. I know the Marines have shot other civilians in Iraq. I posted something about it the other day, remember? Sheesh.

Why the Marines shot these particular civilians is subject to . . . interpretation. Fog of war and all that. The shooters say they were fired on; the shootees (from their hospital beds) say some people in a crowd of protestors threw a few rocks, and the Marines opened up on them.

Apparently, an Iraqi opposition leader, one Mishaan al-Jabouri, tried to warm up the crowd with a few jokes -- the Americans are just here to liberate us, they don't care about the oil, that sort of thing -- which went over about as well as the Dixie Chicks would at a dittohead convention. And then things really got out of hand.

Just an aside, I'd love to know whether al-Jabouri was one of the heroic exiles who rode back into Iraq on the back of an Abrams tank. Because according to this story, as of a few years ago he was sitting in Damascus, (you know: the capital of that other evil Arab bad guy regime) calling for "peaceful," "democratic" reform in Iraq. He also swore he wasn't taking any of the Americans' filthy money. So how did he get to Mosul? Hitchhike?

Goes to show: In Iraq, you don't need to worry about telling your friends from your enemies, because they're all the same people.

However it started, the shooting incident made an appropriate counterpoint to Gen. Jay Gardner's "listening to Iraqi" tour, which kicked off today with a carefully staged meeting of Iraqi opposition leaders in Nasiriyah.

Of course, like Juan Valdez, Gen. Gardner picked only the finest Iraqis for his showcase conference. The Iranians, on the other hand, picked their shots. They instructed their allies to skip the Nasiriyah pony show, but apparently told them not to trash it too vocally. For now, the Iranians are keeping their options open.

This could prove to be the smart play, particularly if US relations with the Sunnis deteriorate badly. The Mosul massacre suggests this isn't a remote possibility.

Sunni resistance would raise the premium on Shia cooperation, which would make intra-Shia factional friction even more dangerous for Garner's occupation plans. Iran, and only Iran, has the KY jelly needed to lubricate that particular problem. But the neocons don't seem to mind rough sex, geopolitically speaking. Will they pay Iran's price, or will they make Garner do it dry? That could get ugly -- and painful, both for the penetrator and the penetrated.

The Mosul shooting brought up another issue that I suspect we're going to be hearing more about in the weeks to come:

A few feet away, an American special forces soldier guarding the hospital said Iraqis were misunderstanding American actions here. "The marines took fire and had to return it," he said, referring to the shooting.

And the planes roaring overhead?

"These are to break up the crowd," he said, referring to groups of young men still gathering near the governate building this afternoon. "It's a show of force, but people don't understand it. They're not grateful."

Ah yes, gratitude. That noblest of human emotions. Having been conditioned to regard the invasion as a disinterested exercise in fraternal liberation -- war as philanthropy -- the American people are probably starting to wonder why they aren't hearing more of it from their little brown brothers.

The neocons don't care, obviously. The oil companies don't care. But the folks back home care. Like the guy in my office, who wonders -- Randy Newman like -- why the foreigners aren't nicer to us, since "we're the ones who are taking care of everybody."

Instead, they're throwing rocks. Or shooting at us. Or both. Something ain't right.

How Americans will react to this rank ingratitude is beyond me. But it could erase any lingering feelings of guilt over the deaths we've caused or the oil we're going to steal, and make it even harder for Congress to appropriate any of our hard-earned tax dollars for reconstruction and humanitarian aid.

I can hear the refrain already: Let the Iraqis pay for their own liberation. Make the interim government self-supporting. Rough sex indeed.

Of course, this will raise the Shia cooperation premium even higher, making Iranian influence even more valuable on the ground.

Like the saying goes: Sometimes good things come to those who will but wait.

Posted by billmon at April 15, 2003 06:58 PM