The Sunni guerrillas may be making all the noise right now, but another, much quieter resistance movement also is emerging in Iraq. In the end, it may pose the more potent challenge to the neocons' imperial project:
Clerics Vie With U.S. For Power
Shiites Widen Role In Reshaping Iraq
In the latest contest over Iraq's uncertain future, the most activist and influential of Baghdad's Shiite clergy have declared their intention to begin shaping a civil society that is tentatively emerging in the capital.
In recent weeks, the clerics have reached out to universities and schools, offering assistance and pushing for dress they deem moral. In an increasingly crowded field of newspapers, they have set up two of their own, with plans for more. Under preparation are television and radio stations. In their most aggressive campaign, they have begun courting professional unions . . .
"We want to see if America is sincere about democracy," said Sheik Abdel-Rahman Shuweili, a 35-year-old cleric who was jailed for more than three years by Hussein's government. "We've instructed our people to take advantage of democracy."
Heh. Does Donald Rumsfeld know about this?
This kind of gradual, patient organizing work isn't something that can simply abolished by decree -- or rooted out by the 3rd Infantry Division. Which creates a bit of dilemma for our new Coalition Provisional Authority (or "CPA" -- think of it as the Arthur Anderson of the occupation industry.)
Should our imperial bureaucrats cooperate with the newly emerging clerical establishment -- or, following in Saddam's footsteps, try to crush it?
This really is a no-win proposition: Cooperate, and we move several steps closer to Rumsfeld's nightmare. Try to crush, and we risk sparking another armed rebelliion in Southern Iraq, one our Polish-led international pick-up squad might not be able to handle.
The Shiite clergy, for their part, think we have a secret weapon -- The Playboy Channel:
In conversations, Zarqani and other clerics express fear about the satellite dishes that have flooded Baghdad since the government's fall; some of the channels are too racy for their tastes. The clerics lambaste popular newspapers for running pictures of scantily clad women. And some, in private, worry that the papers are playing into what they see as a U.S. agenda to spread secularism and a culture they consider decadent.
"Right now, I think there is an informational battle going on," said Sheik Hassan Ghraibawi, a cleric who is overseeing efforts to set up a radio and television station. "America is a clever enemy, and I respect a clever enemy."
Clever? I don't know about that -- unless mindless hedonism is a sign of intelligence. But the Shia mullahs seem to be pretty clever, too. Respecting your enemy may or may not be good advice. But in this case, if I were Bureaucrat Man, I'd take it.
It's in the Shiites' interests to wait -- as the majority, they're in the best position to take control when the Americans leave. So why do anything that would make them stay longer?
They've already won the first round by showing that they can deliver tangible local results more effectively than the Americans. (As I posted in my neck of the blogosphere six weeks ago, this follows the pattern used in Iran.) Unlike the U.S., they've got a long-term plan, and it's working.
Of course, if they sense a tipping point where a surge of violence might convince the U.S. to throw in the towel and evacuate rather than send in more troops, then I can see them "flipping over," to use your term.
Its a forgone conclusion that they'll whack us good. Not now though.
Why? Things are not getting better for the Iraqis under our rule. They are getting worse. The only saving grace is that the Mullahs have enough organization to help out.
The Iraqis have I think a time table for our withdrawl. A lot of the comments made by Iraqis have made this clear. We perhaps have a month or two left before they tell us to leave or else.
It could happen sooner though, all it takes is one trigger happy soldier opening up on a crowd of Iraqi protestors.
Then boom its Alergia all over again.
BTW we can't maintain our current force level for much longer, perhaps 3-4 more months. As it stands there is no more troop rotations in the Army. Those guys in Afghanistan are stuck there for the duration, same for Bosnia and Kosovo.
This is straining the Army far more than whats being let on.
Clever? I don't know about that -- unless mindless hedonism is a sign of intelligence.
In the repressive world of Islam, some would see hedonism as a good option, simply going with the New American flow. I think the Playboy channel, MTV and F.R.I.E.N.D.S, not to mention Sex and the City, could have an important part to play if the Americans really want to disssuade Iraqis from reverting to theocracy. MTV sold coca-cola to South America. Basketball sold Nike and Reebok to the world during the 1980s and here in conservative-confucianist Korea, 50 years of American soldiery has created a permanent boom industry in glitzy brothels and strip clubs (a flyer for which I found on my windshield toay, while parked outside an elementary school) which it is now considered perfectly reasonable, even expected, for the happily married Korean man to visit alone or with friends.
It's no secret the US would like the Middle East to secularise - that would make easier to deal with. It seems like they've bitten off a fair bit more than they can chew here, but this is only one weapon in the arsenal.
Such beautiful irony that an administration which preaches conservative Christian values at home uses the pleasures of the flesh elsewhere.
Cheers,
L
So what's wrong with decadent culture? I think it's kind of cool. These guys are way too uptight.
My prediction: The Shiites will wait us out. Their friends, the Iranians, will wait with them and we will end up with an Islamic Republic in Iraq.
The Sunnis and Kurds won't go for this, so the outlook for the long-term in Iraq is civil war. This doesn't really square with the guy I saw on Fox News last night who referred repeatedly to "democratic Iraq". I'd bet my hard earned money against his that I'm right and he's wrong.
We don't have the staying power the Iranians and the Shiites do. They have no plans to leave, ever. There was another American soldier killed today and we want out, now.
So what's wrong with decadent culture? I think it's kind of cool. These guys are way too uptight.
Who, the Republican extremists or the Islamic ones?
We don't have the staying power the Iranians and the Shiites do. They have no plans to leave, ever. There was another American soldier killed today and we want out, now.
You're so right. The trouble with occupation, as the US discovered in Vietnam, is that the people of an occupied country are fighting (and waiting) for their home, their history, their lives. The occupiers are fighting for oil, bragging rights and votes back homes. Who wants it more?
L
The Sunnis go high, start shooting and stomping about while the Shia stay low, sit and wait. Interesting.
But then the Shia already have their armed militias ready to turn into guerrillas and their urban sanctions already set, so when they flip over, it's on.