Rush Limbaugh was the first to raise the question, but in this case I don't mind following in El Blimpo's footsteps: Is Arnold Schwartzenegger really a Republican?
Certainly, Der Arnuld's actions so far don't exactly resemble the second coming of Ronald Reagan. First he names Warren Buffett as a top advisor, notwithstanding Warren's contempt for modern GOP economics.
Now it seems fellow actor Rob Lowe, Democratic activist and a seasoned member of West Wing's fictional Jed Bartlett administration, will also join the Schwarzenegger team.
Buffett is already floating trial balloons about hiking California property taxes -- in effect, profaning the semi-holy status of Proposition 13, the aptly named 1978 initiative that was one of the initial sparks of the Reaganite revolution.
This, of course, doesn't faze Karl Rove and his boss, who understand perfectly well what kind of Republicanism is saleable in the Golden State. If Schwartzenegger wants to play a West Coast version of Michael Bloomberg -- with muscles instead of brains -- that's fine with them, so long as it works.
But it raises some interesting points about the monolithic nature of modern conservatism. Pushing He Man into the governor's office via a recall election looks eminently doable -- especially with 134 other candidates on the ballot to split the anti-steroid vote. Certainly, it's a more promising strategy for a (dare I say it?) liberal Republican than trying to win a GOP primary, as Schwartzenegger's ideological twin, former LA mayor Richard Riordan, discovered last year.
But once the circus is over, and the circus freak has been installed in Sacramento, will California conservatives swallow their pride and play along? Or will they prove more fractious than their New York counterparts, who have shown a remarkable tolerance for political hermaphrodites like Bloomberg -- or their own governor Pataki, for that matter.
Early signs are mixed. But you'll have to put me down as a skeptic. California right wingers have never shown much inclination towards pragmatism. Perhaps memories of the lost Golden Age of Reagan and Deukmejian are still too fresh. Or maybe the difference is cultural -- the state's inland bastions of conservatism are virtually indistinguishable from Texas and Oklahoma, and about as likely to embrace a watered down version of celebrity Republicanism.
So, assuming he wins, Arnie is going to face a tricky strategic choice: Should he continue on a left-leaning course, in hopes of coopting the state's independents and soft Democrats? Or should he tack right, to protect his vulnerable conservative flank? Either way, the voyage is likely to make heavy demands on the navigational skills of a novice politician.
I think this may be the political story to watch -- more significant, even, than Howard Dean's insurgency or Karl Rove's attempt to leverage the War on Terrorism into a landslide reelection victory for President Shrub.
Why? Because to achieve its goal of establishing Japanese-style one party rule in America, the GOP has to be politicallly competitive outside the conservative heartland, in places like New York and California -- especially California, since the Golden State is a kind of a preview of where the rest of the Sunbelt is heading.
The obvious analogy is the post-New Deal heyday of the Democratic Party, when conservative southern Democrats and northern liberal Democrats were able to coexist -- at least for a time -- within the same party. But building a comparable hegemony for the GOP is going to require a lot more ideological flexibility than the party has shown recently.
In that sense, Conan the Republican is really just a guinea pig in an important political experiment -- one that will test the willingness of conservatives to sacrifice ideology in the pursuit of raw power.
The current GOP ideology is more or less raw power already. I think the Republican Party is basically a waiting list for dispensing raw power to special interests--or, for you dog lovers, GOP ideology is basically a codification of the Law of the Pack.
The abortion people have been waiting for their scraps to be thrown from the table now for two decades, and they may start getting feisty if they don't see some payback. The lumber people are just now picking their morsels off the floor, years after James Watt walked the plank. The oil people are FINALLY (wink) getting some oily scoobie-snacks, after a tough six years worth of begging.
These payoffs just take a looong time in some cases. The GOP has figured out that winning elections reliably keeps people under the 'big tent,' even if you don't deliver on the goodies right away. The pack likes to win, above all else. Without winning, there can be no goodies.
So it's good for the GOP to put Arnold in the statehouse, because it keeps that track record of winning at any cost alive. GOP activists know that it's good for momentum, even if it does nothing to advance their ideology in the near term.
Bottom line, I think most California GOPeople will go with Arnold, and in a year or two, they won't hesitate to see whether a REAL conservative could beat him in the next real primary.
If that real conservative can't help the national movement, the movement will concentrate on other states, happy that at least they were able to strike some small blow against democracy.
"the state's inland bastions of conservatism are virtually indistinguishable from Texas and Oklahoma"
Now, I've never been to either of these states, but living in the California central valley I don't doubt it. I mean, Wally Herger has been our rep for life in this area. At least we have a Cal State school that hasn't been totally co-opted by Young Republicans.
"Japan-style"? Japan when? ...the 1970s? ...the 1930s? ...the 1850s?
Frank Wilhoit --
Japan-style since WWII, obviously.
But more seriously: hasn't this assemblage of incompatible elements been in place in the GOP for some time now? Country-club cut-my-taxes Republicans vote for wing-nut Christo-fascists even if they don't like their worldview and vice versa. It's worked fine so far, why should the GOP stop now?
OK, it's been Ahnoldt's week on the media. But his movie lines are growing stale, and it's time for him to move on or lose ground.
As I expected, Cruz Bustamonte makes the rounds of the Hispanic media in California. He seems to be taking the fight directly to AS by pointing out that AS was a supporter of Prop 187, which is not a good thing to these folks, many of whom are voters.
So far, this activity is gathering little notice in the Anglo media. Since we are quoting Sun Tzu today, here's my take on Cruz:
Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent's fate.
Bush doesn't care what California does as long as whoever is in charge gives the order to download the "right" files for their Diebold computer systems.
One more thought... they are probably having PigBoy attack Arnold so Democrats don't feel bad voting for him.
President Reagan, Governor Ventura, Governor Schwarzenegger...anyone see a pattern here?
Arnold S. is going to become the president of Austria?
wait, so basically, buffett is 72, shultz is 82 and lowe is a tool.
Being a californian and ex-repug, I've seen and heard hard right repugs go rabid over Arnie. They hate him. Its not just posturing. The GOP is a small tent org. You either agree on all issues or you are out. Loyalty is paramount. Ever see a pro-choice, pro-environment repug pol? Generally the GOP eat their own when they get out of line.
In the town that I live in, which is pretty hard core GOP territory, I have not read one letter let to our local newspaper supporting Arnie. But there are letters promoting McClintok.
The people to watch are Simon and McClintlok, if they turn on Herr Arnold during the next 2-3 weeks you know the repugs have it in for him. If not, then he's their boy.
It will be a interesting campaign.
Last Sunday the NYTimes magazine had an article about one of the "kingmakers" in the No Taxes Ever crowd. The article said that this guy was gunning for Arlen Spector because he wasn't sufficiently supporting all tax cuts all the time. Evidently the kingmaker hates politicians (thinks they will eat sh*t if he tells them to) and wants to have a trophy politician scalp to show everyone what happens to Republicans that get out of line. It is hard to see how he allows Arnold to be part of his team. And I'd say the Christian right might also have the same problem.
It was a bit amusing to see Bush back away from supporting Arnold when he realized his "base" didn't find it amusing. But, if you swim with sharks when there is blood in the water, don't be surprised that they turn on you. (The French revolution was certainly a good example of what happens as the extremists get the upperhand.) I'd love to see the "base" decide to discipline Bush. Bet he would not like it much.
I'd love to see Mary's projection come true myself.
Just an item to confirm my statement above:
Poll Places Bustamante In Lead to Succeed Davis
"The California Field Poll found 25 percent of registered voters opted for Bustamante followed by 22 percent for Schwarzenegger."
There is more, but I'll leave it up to you readers to check into it.
Dolph Lundgren played He-Man, not Arnold.
There is a very, very interesting article about Warren Buffett and the situation in California on the front page of Friday's Wall Street Journal. Without saying so directly, Buffett alludes to the fact that Proposition 13 is the source of all of California's budget problems.
Buffett has a $500,000 home in Nebraska and pays around $14,000 a year in property taxes. He also has a $4,000,000 home in California and pays a little over $2,000 in property taxes. That is amazing!
Finally, Friday's issue is a beauty with regard to the difference between the news section of the Journal and its editorial page. An op-ed piece written by a rightwing, think-tank nobody criticizes Arnold S. for even associating with Buffett. Although the news article is well written and informative, the op-ed piece is not only a joke but its author could not possibly have read the Journal's own article on the subject of Buffett that very day. The op-ed author characterizes Buffett as being out of his league on public finance even though the news piece cites a previous request made directly to Buffett that he invest $10 billion dollars into California tax-free bonds. The op-ed author sniffs that California finances are not like buying "razor blades" (Gillette) but fails to mention Buffett's other homerun investments in GEICO, Disney, Coca-Cola, Well Fargo and on and on and on. And the Journal is a business publication?
Would someone explain what it means to be a "conservative" to me, please? Fred Barnes had an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on Friday in which he calls Bush a big government conservative which, apparently, is just fine with Barnes and his Weekly Standard crowd.
He goes on to sight the "traditional" conservative values that Bush upholds: an interventionist foreign policy, his anti-abortion and anti-stem cell reasearh stances, tax cuts no matter what the cost in terms of resulting deficts and so forth.
This is a political philosophy? Yet it is all probably beside the point in that public policy decisions do, after all, have consequences. Bush's policies have not, cannot and will not work. The country will realize this and long for the centrist policies of the previous administration and never forget how "supply-side economics" and a unilateralist foreign policy were the causes of the messes the Republicans will leave behind.
So as to not forget Iraq - Oil's not well
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3156661.stm
Key Iraq oil pipeline 'sabotaged'
Iraqi oil exports through a key pipeline have been halted by sabotage, just three days after they resumed following the war, officials say.
Engineers were forced to shut down the pipeline to Turkey for repairs after a fire broke out at Baiji, north of Tikrit, the hometown of ousted Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
American officials said the fire was now out, but that it could take weeks to repair the damage.
The export of oil from northern Iraq is a crucial factor in America's post-war reconstruction plans for the country.
The pipeline - which carries oil from the northern oil city of Kirkuk to a Turkish terminal at Ceyhan, was only reopened on Wednesday for the first time since March.
'Explosive device'
The US-appointed interim Iraqi oil minister, Thamir Ghadban, said the fire was probably caused by a bomb.
"We believe at this stage it was an explosive device planted on the pipeline," he said on Saturday.
"It could take several days to repair it and put it back in operation. It is a large pipeline with large volume of crude oil," he said.
The pipeline had been targeted by saboteurs or looters over the past few days, US military sources said.
It is the main conduit from the giant Kirkuk oil fields, which produce 40% of Iraq's oil production.
Crumbling network
Engineers had worked for months to get the pipeline working again.
Like all of Iraq's crumbling network, the pipeline was dilapidated by more than a decade of United Nations economic sanctions.
Pipelines have burst because of corrosion and they have been punctured by looters trying to steal oil.
The US is hoping to bring output from Iraq's northern oil fields up to 770,000 barrel per day by the end of the year - still 50,000 barrels short of Iraq's daily pre-war output.
Flows through Iraq's other export route, via the Mina al-Bakr oil terminal in the south, have been interrupted this week by power shortages.
Arnie is taking that Big Tent thing to the Hollywood extreme by packing all those celebrity lions and tigers and bears together in center ring who by nature cannot get along. Leadership? Hell Arnie doesn't even know the basics of being a Circus MC.
The basic concept of the Republican "big tent" is that anyone is welcome, as long as you're willing to shut up and not talk about any divergent viewpoint. I don't see Arnold as being likely to do that, and I don't see how you can be a governor and do that in any case.
Anyone else remember how there used to be liberal Republicans? Funny how there are only "moderates" and conservatives now. Big tent, indeed...
Conan the repug is an apt symbol for a political party devoted to money, power, revenge and prepared to use violence to achieve its ends. If Americans don't wake up soon, Democracy as we know it will be gone conquered not from without but from within. At what point do patriots take to the streets?
It's pretty obvious that the Republican Powers that Be see Arnie as another Gerogie Bush -- a pleasant, popular nonentity who can be manipulated at will.
Personal opinion -- boy are they in for a surprise!
The sad part is, I'd love to see the resurgence of liberal Republican politics in a big state like California, even under a figurehead dunce like Schwarzenegger. A reappearance of vocally liberal Republicans in this country would be almost as pleasantly surprising to me as a reappearance of vocally liberal Democrats.
But I certainly wouldn't like to see it before 2004, when it would almost certainly be a prime CYA opportunity for the neo-conservative ideologues who run the White House. Whatever else Schwarzenegger might do, you can bet he'll be crushing Bush's hand to a pulp in front of cameras all over sunny Cal in 2004 to show what best buddies the big-tent Republicans are. Now if they can only drum up a few more tokens for their ghoulish NYC "convention" . . .
Bottom line, I think most California GOPeople will go with Arnold, and in a year or two . . .
Honestly, does anyone really believe if AS (or any other Repug) wins there won't immediately be a new petition drive leading to another recall?
I take exactly the opposite view from Matt Davis (above); that is, I see Arnold & Bloomberg as concessions by the GOP that the demographics are moving against them. It's a rear-guard action & even if successful signals a drift away from the anti-environmental, anti-middle class policies of hard core conservatism.
"President Reagan, Governor Ventura, Governor Schwarzenegger...anyone see a pattern here?"
Don't overlook Sonny Bono....
Maybe Ahnold can rein in this piece of work
Arnold is the post-apocylypic (tongue in cheek) version of the GOP. And the end of the world is coming soon.
Face it..the backlash is coming..and it will be a biggie. In order for the GOP to survive, they will need to move way way way to the center. They will try to do it, but lose enough of the right-wing to make them obsolete, to be honest. When this happens, it will be Democratic control until they mess it up.
Billmon, here's something to play with in photoshop.
We're all curious about what you'll come up with :-)
SCHWARZENEGGER CAUGHT ON TAPE STUFFING CARROT IN NAKED WOMAN'S BUTT
davis and/or bustamante should be relentless in calling for debates with arnold.
everytime arnold declines, he looks weak and not up to the job.
and if he accepts, chances are he'll do their job for them and self-destruct by sticking his foot in his mouth.
Maybe Ahnold can rein in this piece of work
Posted by: at August 17, 2003 03:13 AM
what were you trying to post?
Sorry about the missing link about the carrot:
http://www.moderateindependent.com/v1i7arnold.htm
Anyone remember the home sex video Rob Lowe did with the teenage girl (while he was married I think). More ReThuglican family values?
There was no Rob Lowe home sex video with a teenager. They were at a hotel.
In fact, it was in a hotel room during the Democratic National Convention in Atlanta that year that Lowe videotaped himself in a sexual tryst with two women--one of them underage.
From hollywood.com
I posted this in comments at Eschaton - I'm pretty sure Warren and Rob are practitioners of Sun Tzu, who believed you must put spies into the enemy camp. My hope is that they are going to do everything in their power to usurp the Groper.