Or at least, that's what they called it back in my day:
California campaign a sign of Latin voters' power
For the first time since 1875, a Latino candidate has a legitimate shot at the governor's mansion.Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, helped by an ever-growing Latino electorate, is trying to unite Latinos and traditional Democrats to beat Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, if voters recall Gov. Gray Davis.
A Field Poll released over the weekend found that Bustamante has the support of 25 percent of likely voters, while Schwarzenegger has 22 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
It seems this has the potential to be a breakthrough election for Hispanics in California, which would be doubly nice, since it would also deep six Der Arnuld's political career before it even gets started.
It's also one of those things that's got to happen sooner or later, if the Emerging Democratic Majority thesis is going to be proven correct. That California would be first isn't surprising -- then the focus could shift to Texas and Florida, the other two mega-states where Hispanics probably hold the key to the future.
But at this point, you have to wonder: Might not the best thing be for Gray Davis to resign, automatically making Bustamante governor and the recall election moot? (Or is that not the way things work in the California constitution?)
It's getting increasingly hard to imagine Davis has much of a chance of surviving, and Bustamante seems preferable both politically and ethically.
Is there any chance Davis might take one for the team here? Or is this really all about his feral survival instincts?
Because as much as I'd like to see Cruz Bustamante win the governorship of California in a stand-up fight, I'm not sure this is the right year for the Democrats to be putting everything on the line in a screw-ball recall election.
Update: 8/18 2:30 PM PT: The early feedback seems to be that a Davis resignation would make Bustamante governor, but would not stop the recall. It would simply moot the first part of the ballot. Bustamante would serve only until the winner of the second part (the beauty contest) was sworn in.
On the other hand, a Davis resignation would put Bustamante in the position of running as the incumbent, and presumably would depress the hate-Davis turnout, which would seem to work in Bustamante's favor.
Either way, though, Davis looks like toast. I don't think he serves any useful purpose for the Democrats.
weel, Davis resigning would make Bustamante Gov until the election was held... Davis let pass his chance to derail this whole thing when he didn't resign before the recall was certified...
the election will be have two parts:
1) Recall Davis: Yes/No
2) who should be gov if enough vote "yes" to #1
at least that's my dim understanding
Could you make the argument that Governor of California would be most powerful elected position held by a Hispanic in this country? What would be the counter-arguments?
The election would still go on even if Davis resigns; however, the incentive for the anti-Davis crowd to actually get out and vote would be pretty minimal.
IMHO, the only way Davis falls on his sword is if the state/national Dems make it painfully obvious that his employment opportunities post-politics are nil unless he does so.
I think one of the big reasons Latino turnout has been low is the lack of Latino candidates for important offices. Then, Dems get afraid to nominate Latinos because they are afraid that anti-Latino backlash votes will outnumber whatever boost in Latino votes they'll get from the nomination. Bustamante offers a chance to break the vicious cycle, with nothing but good consequences for us lefties. Let me take this opportunity to shamelessly promote the long post I have on this subject at my own blog.
Once the recall was certified it was too late for Davis to resign. Luckily, Bustamante didn't listen to him and got on the ballot as backup candidate.
A Davis resignation would probably result in some anti-Davis voters staying home *and* some anti-recall voters staying home (believing the recall moot). No telling which would be dominant.
Why should any Dem fall on his sword -- "for the team" -- as you put it, just because a bunch of rabid rightwing reactionary putzes and the White House want to off him? They have issues with Gray that simply make mock of any others.
Why should any Democrat do the work of his/her opponents for them? It doesn't make a lick of sense. But by golly, get the right wing reactionaries riled up about anything, get them foaming at the mouth to scapegoat a Dem for anything, and just like that, there will be a bunch of Dems saying, "Yeah, I never liked that scum either! String him up! Throw him over the side! Let's get him!" Never fails.
Because the Rs know this, they pull this stunt over and over and over again. Sometimes they lose -- viz: Clinton -- and sometimes they win: viz: Gore. To their credit, the Rs will NOT do this to their own when Dems go after them.
But here we go again. "Gray oughta resign. Nobody likes him. And it would give Cruz a chance."
Cruz has his chance, and what should happen is that California and national Dems should be fiercely supporting Gray -- whether they like him or not -- and that should be that.
Just because Joe Lieberman shuns Gray (oh, and flacks for Cruz) doesn't mean the rest of us should.
And for what it is worth, the election goes on no matter. Both parts. If Gray resigns (he won't), Cruz becomes acting-governor until the election. If the recall passes, the winner of the plurality becomes governor (could be Cruz). If the recall fails, Cruz becomes governor. The mystery is whether Cruz would go back to being Lt Governor if the recall passes and someone else wins the plurality.
--felix
Davis plays dirty dirty pool, just like Rove. Don't count him out and don't expect him to quit.
It really is all about Davis' "feral survival instincts", although it's mighty tough to apply the term "feral" to a humanoid like Davis. I'm just crossing my fingers for Bustamante.
my fearless prediction from way back before the recall was even certified was that Davis retains his office with a greater-than-5% margin.
I was feeling pretty stupid about a week ago, but a couple of lawsuits -- most especially the ACLU-sponsored suit on the consent decree to replace punchcard ballots -- now have a chance to push the election to March, when it would be folded into the primary.
in which case -- through absolutely no cleverness of my own -- my sad-looking 5%+ Davis prediction would probably end up being right after all.
fingers crossed. it's always, always, always better to be lucky than good.
Random recall thoughts of the day
1) The recall will likely not be held on October 7th as scheduled. There is plenty of reason to believe that the federal courts will postpone it.
2) Gray Davis' remarkable move on domestic partners puts Arnold in a pickle. Arnold move to his left on this issue without proposing gay marriage, which he surely won't do. Davis' move forces him to take a stand agreeing, which will further alienate any Republicans who are vaguely for gay rights but wouldn't want to go that far (the squishy middle referred to in our recent post). Any kind of equivocation will make him look like just another politician, losing him support in the "radical middle" he depends on. Meanwhile, Bustamante will stand with Davis on this.
3) The right will have to choose between McClintock and Simon. If they get their act together they will try for their 20+% with one of them, probably McClintock. But those are two huge egos, and it's hard to know if either would quit without a Roveian push.
4) So all Arnold is left with now is the (admittedly huge) straight white and straight Asian middle. And newly registered voters. Does anyone know how many new one have gotten on the rolls since Arnold announced? We may find out, apparently, tomorrow.
5) California is simply not going to go Republican in 2004 no matter who the governor is. But in a recent story put out by Zogby, political scientist Shaun Bowler of UC Riverside suggests that the in the long run the recall will be remembered for the emergence of Bustamante and what he calls the "sleeping giant" that is the Chicano vote.
just a petty little German grammar correction.
It should say
Dem Arnold's
which is equally wrong (Dativ instead of the necessary Genitiv, or your Nominativ), but at least it is in keeping with current practice - and sounds better.... :-)
billmon: It seems this has the potential to be a breakthrough election for Hispanics in California, which would be doubly nice, since it would also deep six Der Arnuld's political career before it even gets started.
It's also one of those things that's got to happen sooner or later, if the Emerging Democratic Majority thesis is going to be proven correct. That California would be first isn't surprising.
I'm pretty sure New Mexico, while not a mega-state, was first, having elected Latino Governor Bill Richardson. Richardson, in fact, is also considered to be a possible future VP, if not presidential, hopeful.
I do agree that CA, FL and TX are the next likely states to reflect the growing power of Latinos in politics. I'd be surprised, as long as the US stays democratic (no sure bet these days -- maybe even odds?), if this doesn't happen, as Latinos and Hispanics together are the largest minority group.
The fact that the Hispanic vote bloc is so large has everything to do with the GOP struggling mightily to pry them away from the Democrats. It's the rationale behind supporting driver's licenses for illegals here in California.
If I were Hispanic (I'm not, and are they glad!), I would be insulted that the GOP sees me as so malleable. So they really think I would support them just because my cousin Juan from Juarez can become a legal motor vehicle operator in the State of California?
The latest amnesty of illegals (called "regularizing" by Bush II) is another insidious attempt at weakening the Democrat hold on Hispanic votes. (There are also other "advantages" this move creates, but they aren't germane to this discussion) Those who already have voting rights are to be extremely grateful that NaNa doesn't have to go back to Sonora and miss seeing her grandkids, and will then vote for the GOP out of gratitude.
Luckily, these moves don't seem to have the intended effect, but we can count on the GOP to keep trying until they come up with something that works. Maybe they should try the threat of deportation to Guantanamo if the intended deportee doesn't become a registered Republican?
Only California, fantasy factory for the world,
could come up with this disaster flick/sitcom hybrid. Forget any chance of substantive issues
being discussed. Instead, please accept a debate
between Gary Coleman and porn actress Mary Carey
on the Game Show Channel. This could be the most
defining moment of the election. According to my
calculations, when Gary and Mary face off, he'll
be looking right at her nipples.
Peace
It's not the way things work. Davis resigning now wouldn't do anything.
Well, if hispanic votes are becomming more important, perhaps the Texas GOP should be such dipshits.