"Strategic hamlets"? Nothing about precious bodily fluids?

If it happens, it has to happen during Chalabis stint as head of the council, next May would be too late.

i fully expect a draft to occur if Bush is elected. but there's no way he'd even hint of it before the elections. that's more of a Febuary Suprise.

Well, seeing the fact that one Saddam Hussein (I hope I spelled that name right) is just waiting for that to occur, I highly doubt that the U.S will be able to withdraw troops any time soon (well rather decades then years).....Mr. Bush put the U.S between a rock and a hard place..

Yeah, as Michael points out, you forgot to mention that Sadaam is still wandering around Iraq, even though Gen. Sanchez and others keep promising he will be captured within a month.

Once the army pulls out of its daily Sunni Triangle confrontations, expect to see the Ba'athists come out from their hiding places. And a heck of a lot more chaos, if that is possible.

I wonder how long the continued slaughter of US troops can continue. Wesley Clark's entrance into the presidential race shows the sharks can smell the blood in the water.

If US troops enclave in border redoubts, what happens when Saddam and the Sunni try to reestablish control over the Shiite? Son like Father and ignore the slaughter?

The only option I see is partitioning. Let the Arab League take over the Sunni Triangle. Move US troops to Kurdistan to prevent a Turkish slaughter of the Kurds and give a little Northern Oil to Bush’s Buddies. Let the British oversee the turning of the Shiite region into a fundamentalist Islamic Republic.

If Operation Beat a Hasty Retreat goes down, who will provide security detail for Halliburton? Who will ensure that the oil keeps flowing (as much as it is)?

Yeah, withdrawing might be the best thing for the U.S. (I'm not convinced of that, but I'm not convinced that staying is good, either.) But when has this administration ever put the interests of America and Americans over lining their own pockets?

YT - I think the "real facts" are that United Fruit Halliburton has no security. They're not able to profit, therefore, no reason to be there.

If it happens, it has to happen during Chalabis stint as head of the council, next May would be too late.

The stints rotate monthly among nine members of the council, so let's see... Chalabi's term comes around again in June. But I don't know if the late Ayatollah Hakim's brother (Aziz?), who suspended his membership in the IGC, was one of the nine. If so, May would be the moment.

Lots of opportunities for slips between cup and lip before then.

The exit strategy will get us out of there with a democracy installed by next June-July. Its the election, stupid.

squiddy, what makes you think that Halliburton actually has to do useful work to get paid? Their contracts are always "cost plus".

There's nothing about getting paid for doing actual work in a cost plus contract.

If it happens, it has to happen during Chalabis stint as head of the council, next May would be too late.

The stints rotate monthly among nine members of the council,

I thought they each got 4mnths as 'head'?

"Strategic hamlets"? Nothing about precious bodily fluids?

Mmm... hamlets.

Oh, wait. Ok, more seriously: Isn't "strategic hamlet" exactly what the PNAC plan desires?

Looking at this the most cynical possible way: America does not seriously want to babysit and rebuild Iraq, despite the recent protestations about America's "humanitarian concerns." What we want is a strategic base in the Middle East... a "home base" from which to kick the asses of whatever terrorist groups, unfriendly countries, primitive nuclear facilities, etc., that are present in the region.

For various reasons, we can't use Saudi Arabia as that base anymore. For starters, they're not our friends. Second, every time we use them as such a base, they get less and less our friends.

So the long-term goal in Iraq is simply to have an American presence there. We will create several large, permanent military bases, with the "agreement" of the Iraqi council. From there, we can strike Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, or -- yes -- Saudi Arabia with relative impunity, and with far less planning and resources than carrier-based attacks require.

Outside those "secure zones", the rest of Iraq can go f--- itself. As long as there is sufficient Iraqi security in place to prevent large-scale assaults against the base (occasional suicide attacks are fine, given that such things would exist anywhere in the Middle East right now), it presents exactly the opportunity needed for the PNAC plan.

The goals of PNAC are to create a new, American-dominated Middle East. Whether or not that Middle East is "democratic" is beside the point, so long as America controls it. So I'd say the secure islands represented by bases in Iraq, with the rest of Iraq controlled by the Iraqis to whatever extent they are or are not capable of, is exactly what the exit strategy has been all along.

The current difficulties are complicating things -- because we need a regime there at least marginally friendly to U.S. interests in order for this to work out. But WMDs, humanitarian concerns, etc. -- those meant nothing in the PNAC plan. Whether or not we leave Iraq a mess is irrelevant, so long as we gain some serious, mid-region military acreage from which to base the next parts of the plan.

Ah, PNAC. The Cliff's Notes of American foreign policy.

Whether Halliburton has to do anything concrete to get paid or not, we can't survive without oil coming out of either Saudi Arabia or Iraq. Preferably both.

Without security solved in Iraq, the pipelines will continue to be sabatogued weekly.

But with a continuing presence in Iraq and without solving the problems in it, we're going to exacerbate the instability of the Saudi government (I read of a consultant's report that gave the kingdom an 1 in 3 chance of ending up like Iraq in the near future). Which means we will lose that pliant source of petroleum.

At some level, we need to really solve the security issues. We can't pull out. Or else Arnie won't be able to drive his Hummer.

Remember '72! (PRE-ELECTION) "Peace is at hand!" (POST-ELECTION) BOMBS AWAY!!!

Squiddy, p mac;

The correct answer is that Halliburton et al need just enough time to transfer their share of the proposed $87 billion in additional funding out of the Government's accounts and into their own.

If this leaving sooner rather than later story is true, the only motive for invasion still standing is the opportunity the war presents to loot the Treasury. Stability in the Middle East, the Reverse Domino Theory, WMDs, Deepening Control of the World's Oil, Israel, PetrolDollars vs. PetrolEuros, the Real Time Demonstration of Pre-emptive War, Flypaper, and the rest are all upended by facts on the ground if the US walks away.

Speaking of exit strategies or lack thereof, I came across this today. [link from Motherjones]

Don't know if it's been posted or discussed here before. If so - apologies.

From George H.W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (1998), pp. 489-90:

Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in "mission creep," and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible. We had been unable to find Noriega in Panama, which we knew intimately. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well. Under those circumstances, there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different--and perhaps barren--outcome.

'Outside those "secure zones", the rest of Iraq can go f--- itself'

Yep--that part of the PNAC plan sure is working great in Afghanistan. I imagine such thinking comes easy for folks accustomed to living in gated communities. Given the domestic politics of Bush & Co., it might well be their long-term vision for the U.S., too.

Jim S 04:29 PM:
The only option I see is partitioning. Let the Arab League take over the Sunni Triangle. Move US troops to Kurdistan to prevent a Turkish slaughter of the Kurds and give a little Northern Oil to Bush’s Buddies. Let the British oversee the turning of the Shiite region into a fundamentalist Islamic Republic.

You realize, that this would be a genocidal atrocity in the making, right? And would light the fuse on the Middle East powder keg.

There is no easy way out, there is only the right way out.
peace and love

Hunter and Emptywheel are on the money.
This concept of the fortified bases on the edge was the original PNAC plan for a low-profile long term basing of air and ground forces in the region.
Since the whole thing turned out wrong they are going to a hasty "PNAC Plan B." BushCo has no intention of really rebuilding Iraq civilain infrstructure at US expense beyond the cosmetic window dressing required to make it past the '04 election cycle. Time has run out for a peaceful pacification/transition to have occured so they are going slap together an Iraqi proxy police/military force backed up by the US Army.

They cannot afford to replace 140,000 in-country Americans with a fresh force. So they extended the service on those lucky-duckies already there on the bet they can have enough of a local force in place to allow a drawdown in numbers in early '04 just so they can claim progress and reduce their exposure throughout '04. The key is that whatever bad happens in Iraq to Iraqis in our employ is NOT a problem, and it won't even be covered by the US news. The Americans will be out in isolated bases and the KIA/WIA count will drop, Iraqis police, soilders, and innocents will be most of the KIA/WIA - but they don't care about that. This will not work long term but BushCo is focused on the '04 elections at this point. Of course this means that the Iraqi oil industry will be non-producing and subject to sabotage.

Werner,
In “an eye for an eye” fundamentalist Islam culture, you will not find much peace and love for other cultures and religions. We kicked the Sunni out of power in Iraq. By partitioning and placing the fellow Muslim Arab League in control of the Sunni, they may not go dashing off to try to re-take the whole country and the US may find away out this “clusterfuck”.

Jim,

and the Iranians just kick back without intervening?
And, boy, you do consider what that means for the situation of women in Iraq?

If you were a modern and educated woman in Iraq, what would you think of Jim and his Lebanon Exit Strategy?

If you break it, you fix it - not, if you break it you just run away. Bad kid, no donut!

And, I bypassed the obvious:

It is your proposed strategy that is neccessary to create..eye for an eye” fundamentalist Islam culture.. in the first place, where it didn't exist so far.
You are that acknowleged about the socio-historic realities of Iraq, right?

And, let me not even start about the "eye for an eye" gangland culture in the ghettos of the US gun-cult obsessed society, and what that means for the socio-economic situation of women in these ghettos.

The US may find away out this “clusterfuck” as well by withdrawing the police to protect the remaining "Gated Communities" as well, right?????

Good planning on your part, I hope you make it into the "Gated Communities" in time.

If you had to recreate a living history of the Middle East at the time of the Crusades with the Europeans holed up safely in scattered fortresses away from the local population they had "defeated," you couldn't ask for better than this setup to start with. The nobile Crusaders and their troops, oh great and honorable knights, held out for a very long time in their isolation, that is, until this guy named al-Malik al-Nasir Salah al-Din Abu 'l-Muzaffer Yusuf ibn Ayyub ibn Shadi (better known as Saladin) showed up and evicted them. Interestingly, Saladin was born in Tikrit, Iraq but of a Kurdish family originally from Armenia.

There are all kinds of puzzle pieces in the pile, just a matter of seeing how they fall into place. Somehow, I don't George Bush is going to be given a choice in this matter but rather circumstances will dictate how it all turns out. Kind of reminds me of the old silent movies where the heroine is tied to the railroad tracks and you have to wait 'til next time to find out if she is going to be rescued in time, or not. Bush has got us into a serial war, and next week's episode promises to be even more exciting than this week's. Almost can't wait....

Hunter: The PNAC plan was not just to create secure American enclaves from which they could kick ass in Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia or wherever else their fancies may turn. This plan was also to allow Israel to loot Iraqi oil with the"agreement" of the Bank robber-Wolfowitz puppet Chalabi and to "resettle" Palestinians
in Iraq using Iraq's oil money. These cannot be accomplished if the American forces there do not intervene on a daily basis to protect the oil pipeline going from Mosul to Haifa.

I think the PNAC guys have a hard task on their hands as the reality is fast deviating from the fantasy script they wrote for themselves.

Its a plan, maybe not a good plan but at least it is a plan. But no matter what they plan there is one huge flaw...it will be carried out by the jerks running the Pentagon which means they will screw it up. Until Bush replaces them, no plan, even a perfect one, will work.

Yes, I knew the "fortified compounds" was just a matter of time. I suspect that Brember will then be left refereeing inter-coalition soccer matches.

From the Associated Press December 12, 2003:

"Today in Basra, the Spainish drew 2-2 with league leader, England. While in Mosul, the United States squad defeated visiting Bulgaria 1-0.

On a sad note, a Polish helicoptor carrying the Polish team was hit by a RPG killing all on board. The Polish team was en route to Najaf for a match against the second place Korean club. This was further bad news for the Polish team as they were in last place going into today's games.

Helicoptors have been the sole means of transportation for teams this season as the roads have become far too deadly in recent months."

The remote enclave strategy doesn't win Halliburton the oil from the saboteurs (reported to have struck another pipeline again today), making it a poor candidate for PNAC's real hidden agenda, IMO.

Ironically, Jim Hightower pointed out this weekend that the current no-bid contract provides for "as much as" $6 million a day of our tax dollars to Halliburton to import fuel into Iraq.

Truly astounding.

These cannot be accomplished if the American forces there do not intervene on a daily basis to protect the oil pipeline going from Mosul to Haifa.

Amen to that. That seems to be a critical part of the plan that they completely bloody forgot about. How the hell do you secure a pipeline? Short of putting troops every ten feet for hundreds of miles (and even if you do), it can't be done.

The PNAC plan is astonishing in its dumbassitude. It really does read like a 1990's merger-and-acquisition-frenzied business plan, e.g...

"We're going to boldly restructure the paradigm of our Middle Eastern department, and the result will be, um, a fountain of money gushing out the ears of every board member, employee, and the fish in the office aquarium."

"Infrastructure! Rightsizing! I'm brilliant, give me some money!"

Sheesh. CEO Presidency, indeed.

Werner,

War is a chaotic hell that feeds on its self until all civility, reason and hope are destroyed. The war will burn on until all the causes are destroyed.

2 U.S. Fronts: Quick Wars, but Bloody Peace

The first people displaced in War are the professional classes. Whores, Killers and Profiteers make out famously.

Iraq at the Center of the World has been invaded continuously throughout history. They have a fundamentalists “eye for eye” tribal culture outside the professional middle class areas of Bagdad.

Christian occupiers have been driven out Mesopotamia twice before. The only question is how long the third Christian occupation will last. Already there is talk of withdrawing the US Army into redoubts and leaving the rest of Iraq to their own policing and squabbling. I’m afraid it will be a long time before the “Age of Aquarius” appears in Iraq or returns to the USA.

"We're going to boldly restructure the paradigm of our Middle Eastern department, and the result will be, um, a fountain of money gushing out the ears of every board member, employee, and the fish in the office aquarium."

It's the synergy that will make it work. And, uh, the new technologies.

Jim,
I don't mention this often, but I make an exception:
My mother is a Displaced Person ,she became an orphan at age 11, after my grandmother was released to her to die within 3 hours, after having been tortured for 4 days. [The NAZI's killed Germans too, epecially when they were retreating and didn't find the "Forced Labour Polish Officers" in my Grandma's factory that she had run off into the forest to hide, before the Gestapo came to execute them- so, they took Granny "downtown". ] Soon after that, the Russians came and raped mom.
{FYI: Poland shifted on the map westwards after WW2} Then the Poles came and gave her an hour to pack one suitcase and find herself at a Cattle Train Car, doors not to be opened until days later in the NorthWest of Germany, where noone liked the "Newcommers", and where she got screwed out of education, never learned writing properly, and had to survive on her own from age 11 on.
[ She is the one who taught me that "Age of Aquarius", as you call it, forgiveness and my peace and love naivitee. But also, never to forget that the cover of civilisation is only skin deep]

My Father, after some less eventfull stints of cleaning Phosphorous bombs out of the attics of his street in Leipzig on the regular raids [see, you have to bury them in trenches - they keep burning under water] was glad to see some fancy vistas in the Leipzig Firestorm that followed the attack on the press district, where large firetrucks and fireman got sucked by the up-winds right into the incinerating flames, never to even leave a trace to bury.
This was followed by his draft on his 16th birthday, 1 November '44, first to the Heavy Flak, where he got to down a bunch of Fying Fortresses, which, after phosphorus and firestorm, he quite enjoyed. Eventually encircled in the Ruhr Area by the troops advancing to Berlin, more fun was had by him, when a spread out column of American tanks approached over the surrounding hills, and they took out a bunch of them, having rigged wires onto the Flak cannons to aim for land combat. How they laughed, when the GI's didn't retreat with their tanks, but jumped out and ran away!
Then they blew up their cannons and retreated. Now we approach the highlight of my fathers fantastic five month war adventures. Couple days later, his sarge sent him with an ammunition carrier into the no-mans zone of the City of Dortmund to scout for Americans. Surpisingly, he found some. And they were piss drunk, and in shock he fired his Heavy Machine gun until a handful of man lay dead, while shitting his pants down to his boots. The sphincter just gave out under him. Nonetheless, he was awarded Iron Cross second class, they played hide and seek for 3 more days, then he surrendered. [See, his sarge never new if the kid-soldiers kill him if he suggests surrender]

More interesting times were had as POW on the meadows of the River Rhine at Remagen, when frostbite blackend his arms and legs, and the senior German Surgeon, literally risked his life by pleading with a commanding US Army Surgeon and disobeying him by only taking 6 toes off my father, instead of his arms and legs. Lucky for dad, the rest grew back.

All this is true, if abbreviated.

Jim, it's okay. You didn't know. You know now.
I new all my life, what war is. I even grew up playing between bunkers. And, there is way more.

Love and peace

I new all my life, what war is.

Wow Werner - I'm way late reading these comments (bin away), but I think you have just encapsulated the whole problem in a nutshell.

In the run-up to the official start of the war in March 2003 polls in Eastern Europe and former Soviet states west of Russia showed that the populations at large did not want war, really high figures polling against (more than three-quarters), even tho their kleptocrat governments were toadying up to the US by supporting Bush and sending nominal troops (Poland, Albania). The further east across Europe, the greater the opposition. Views, I imagine, borne out of experience like that of your family.

This constitutes the real problem, because as we know there is no substitute for experience. This time round how do the people with the experience and therefore the knowledge prevent those without from committing such a grave error?