billmon, you missed the bottom line. Never mind approval, how would people actually vote?

3. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)?

Net Leaned Vote:

Democratic
Bush nominee
10/13/03 46 47
9/13/03 49 44
8/11/03* 48 40
4/30/03 53 40

How on earth did the Post come up with that headline? When you go to their site with the actual tallies on it, a brief glance at the columns clearly shows that the numbers aren't up.

All amazing. Why don't I believe that Bush would lose if the "election" were held today?

Sorry, that last was me. To expand a bit, particularly WRT billmon's previous post:

There's a similar trend in the intelligence community. During Bush I, CAI Directory Robert Gates argued for monopoly. That end is being pursued today. Centralization yeilds authoritarian control. (I'm amazed that market fundamentalists seem seem to think intelligence consolidation is a good idea. I thougt it went Diverse Competition=Free Market=God)

I keep telling my friends that Democrats can't be stupid enough to let Republicans control the electoral process but I'm not sure I believe it. Wish I did.

One more piece of grist for the mill. Last week was the first week Top 10 Conservative Idiots didn't list Bush. Is that the reason for his dead cat bounce in the polls?

The trend of four recent polls is still down. Bush has gone from freefall to steady erosion.
And this in the face of a stock market that is looking much better.

I still would be interested in knowing what % of people called say "Bush who?". Probably larger than is healthy for our democracy.

The problem I see in the Wilsongate numbers is the 20% who either don't care for whatever reason or don't really know/understand the issue. This means to me that the news media has succeeded in taking this off the burner, which is/was the Bush plan from the start (delay, confuse, forget) and was successfully implemented in the Yellowcake scandal. Either of these (Wilsongate, Yellowcake) would have prompted media outcry and certain impreachment for Clinton. But for Bush, 20% don't even care.

Let's not forget the scandal of the 9/11 stonewalling: one of these days the sleeping media is going to wake up and alert the public who might start wondering just why the administration doesn't want to get to the bottom of that mess.

Billmon please don't get like Kos and parse each and every poll that comes out. It gets redundant. All polls show me are the ignorance of the masses and the craftiness of the poll creators. One can create a poll asking the same exact question to the same exact people and depending on the wording get entirely different results. I don't mind when you point out the hipocrisy and deviousness of the poll takers as in yesterday's Gallup poll post but when you start comparing them like they contain real information I start to tune out.

billmon, you missed the bottom line.

I didn't miss it, but like I said in my post: It wasn't news.

The problem I see in the Wilsongate numbers is the 20% who either don't care for whatever reason or don't really know/understand the issue.

I just don't read it that way -- I think for at last some people the "no opinion" answer is a form of denial. They don't want to believe in a cover up, but can no longer ignore the obvious signs of one.

All this reminds me of an NPR story where they went out and interviewed the man/woman on the street about their opinions on the latest polls. The cognative dissonance involved in that boggles my mind.

The fact that a poll is news at all is a testament to the isolation of the political class from the rest of society.

In the end, in order for members of the king's court to take any position other than the kings they need some other power base to protect them. A king doesn't need to punish in any other way than to banish them from the court.

to continue... so much of the Bush presidency is amounts to the hollowness of public opinion is the face of power. Even before 9/11 it was clear the Bush administration was governing from the perspective that he was in power and they weren't, with the expectation that public opinion would fall behind. They will continue to do that until someone kicks them out.

But in the end, what is keeping this all in play is that 87 billion dollars working its way through Congress. If and when that appropriation is passed, I predict an end to Wilson-gate. The Wilsons will file a civil suit which will go nowhere fast and the election will be determine by events in Iraq over which know one has any control.

There is a very large segment of the population actively engaged in denial regarding the total scope of Bush Admin failures. I'm not sure its 20% above the bedrock 45% die hard Wingnuts, but clearly there is a large segment that just won't admit that things are as bad as they know they are. Why is this? fear instilled at every turn by Cheney and the PNAC, the "screw it, I'll just take care of my little world" types? What causes such a large group to just have No Opinion? It is helpful to remember that much less than a majority of Americans actually even vote in elections, so the full quantity of No Opinion/don't Care citizens is huge.

ABC co-sponsored the poll, and ABC's headline is completely different:

Poll: Bush Slipping -- Iraq, Economic Problems Level the ’04 Playing Field

I noticed the night before last that CNN White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux said in response to the new poll numbers, Bush's approval rating "shot up" from 50 to 54%. Yeah, 4 percentage points out of 100--way way up. Bush's rating didn't, but it seems Malveaux and her fawning comrades have "shot up" alright; their veins and brains are filled with Republical self-righteous bile.

Good find, Steve M. The difference between the WaPo and the ABC articles is staggering. The headlines tell only part of the story.

One thing I noticed--it seems like Bush's support among women is collapsing.

Question: If events in Iraq still haven't improved by March, will an invasion of Syria become a likely scenario to save the unfortunate Bush? (Never mind the practicality of such a scheme)

The problem I see in the Wilsongate numbers is the 20% who either don't care for whatever reason or don't really know/understand the issue.

i tend to agree with this statement, i have noticed more and more people who simply refuse to become educated on the issues, they are bombarded with meanless banter from the media and yet have no idea what is going on. there is also a problem with the bush supporters themselves; the guy could shoot someone on live TV and they would still praise him, which really scares me.

One thing I noticed--it seems like Bush's support among women is collapsing.

maybe its because of the abortion bullshit congress just passed. any sane woman, no matter what her stance on the issue, does not want the king of morons telling her what to do with her body.